Irrational Exuberance
Actually, I can’t help but wonder as to why my son would loan me this book. I suppose growing up with a mother that has a motto “All Things With Exuberance” has caused him to rebel against his upbringing and be somewhat conservative in his approach to life . As a conservative young fellow, he may have some serious concern about his old mom. Like the Dot Bomb disaster, perhaps he fears that I suffer from Irrational Exuberance. Being the brilliant young man that he is, may be he’s right. Perhaps he is hoping against hope that (at least when it comes to investing in the stock market) I will learn to rein in my natural exuberance.
I am at a point in the book where the author (good ole buddy Burt) discusses a new science called “Behavioral Finance”. Apparently, a couple of psychologists got together and did some experimentation to prove that not only are people irrational in how they make financial decisions, they deviate in a systematic manner from rational behavior! Now this I can relate to. It sounds exactly like what I’ve experienced in the real estate market over the past 25 or so years. For instance, it never fails that when interest rates are falling, buyers will sit on the fence waiting to see how low they go before jumping in to buy. But when do they jump into buy? When interest rates start rising! I know when interest rates tick up, the phones will start ringing and I’m going to have a busy week. “Who turned on the faucet?! Did interest rates go up again?”
Another example is like the market we’re enjoying right now - a buyer’s market. Any rational buyer would realize that this is the best time to buy that we’ve had in over 5 years! Prices are soft, sellers are motivated and there is a glut of inventory on the market - meaning that buyers have more and better choices then ever. But what are buyers doing? Are they buying? Nope - they’re sitting on the proverbial fence wondering how much lower prices will drop - just like the interest rates! And if they DO make an offer, a great buy isn’t good enough. Nope. They have to pommel the seller so hard that the seller refuses to deal with them anymore. I had one seller say to me recently, “I would rather burn the house down then sell it to these people!” Whaddya gonna do?
But then, this is out of the mouth of one that just may suffer from terminal exuberance.
“All Things With Exuberance!”
mary!